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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2003

les courbes de variation séculaire du CMT : "Bayesian inference of calibration curves

Résumé

The range of errors that occur at different stages of the archaeomagnetic calibration process are modelled using a Bayesian hierarchical model. The archaeomagnetic data obtained from archaeological structures such as hearths, kilns or sets of bricks and tiles, exhibit considerable experimental errors and are typically more or less well dated by archaeological context, history or chronometric methods (14C, TL, dendrochronology, etc.). They can also be associated with stratigraphic observations which provide prior relative chronological information. The modelling we describe in this paper allows all these observations, on materials from a given period, to be linked together, and the use of penalized maximum likelihood for smoothing univariate, spherical or three-dimensional time series data allows representation of the secular variation of the geomagnetic field over time. The smooth curve we obtain (which takes the form of a penalized natural cubic spline) provides an adaptation to the effects of variability in the density of reference points over time. Since our model takes account of all the known errors in the archaeomagnetic calibration process, we are able to obtain a functional highest-posterior-density envelope on the new curve. With this new posterior estimate of the curve available to us, the Bayesian statistical framework then allows us to estimate the calendar dates of undated archaeological features (such as kilns) based on one, two or three geomagnetic parameters (inclination, declination and/or intensity). Date estimates are presented in much the same way as those that arise from radiocarbon dating. In order to illustrate the model and inference methods used, we will present results based on German archaeomagnetic data recently published by a German team.

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Dates et versions

halshs-00396489 , version 1 (18-06-2009)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : halshs-00396489 , version 1

Citer

Philippe Lanos. les courbes de variation séculaire du CMT : "Bayesian inference of calibration curves. Colloque European Geophysical Society (EGS-AGU-EUG), Apr 2003, Nice, France. ⟨halshs-00396489⟩
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